My big secret project this year was extensive research into what will happen in 2011 and it hasn’t been easy.
My daily routine included reading a big bag of tea leaves every morning (the bag is called ‘the web’ by some), extensive alcohol abuse followed by extreme power napping, intense daily consultations with Nostradamus (I renamed my dog for this project), and of course a third mortgage on my soul for the necessary project funds.
It’s been a rough ride, but well worth it. I finished it this morning – here we go:
- 2011 will be mostly like 2010! The sun will not explode. Aliens will not land. You will look mostly like you did last year, and your time will be mostly spent doing the same things you did the previous 12 months. Your fears, dreams and complaints at the end of 2011 will be similiar to those at the end of this year.
- Some smart people will make insightful guesses about 2011, but be wrong and ignored! We are disasters at predicting the future, but some predictions are based on better thinking that other predictions. The problem is we we judge predictions in binary form, which is foolish.
- Some morons will make lucky guesses and be ‘right’ and be famous! You can always find someone who predicted something correctly, but this doesn’t mean they are wise, it likely means they were lucky. Some predicted the sub-prime crisis, but they may have been predicting a sub-prime crisis every year since the day they were born. It’s a big enough planet to always find someone who predicted whatever happens. This doesn’t mean much on its own. We should ask “what can we learn from this prediction” whether it’s right or wrong. Truly good predictions teach us something, even if wrong, but someone can have guessed right and teach us nothing.
- I will repost this for 2012 and not have to change a thing (other than the numbers).