Do you listen to audiobooks? Advice wanted

I’m in talks now with O’Reilly Media about producing an audiobook for Confessions of a Public Speaker. I’ve never done one of these things before, and the few I’ve heard were mixed bags.

Here are some questions:

  1. Do you prefer to have the author do the reading?
  2. What factors make one audiobook better than another (besides the quality of the book itself)?
  3. Is it important that the audiobook is identical to the printed version?
  4. What are the top annoyances you wish audiobooks would avoid?

For reference, here’s a sample of my voice from NPR.

Thursday linkfest

Here are this week’s links:

  • The rise and fall of Rome, in numbers – Interesting to see a graph of the population of the roman empire over time.
  • How to shoot an anvil – Pure stupid guy fun – what happens if you pack two anvils together with gunpowder? Answer – watch. Promise it will make you smile.
  • Top songs about writing – It’s a great idea for a list, but half these choices were totally lame. Perhaps they limited themselves to stuff they could find on YouTube.  What would yours be?
  • Better presentations thru sex – This is irresistible public speaking fodder. Changes the idea of what should happen in green rooms. (Sadly, they don’t link to the study they mention).
  • Miquel Barcelo – At first I thought this artist’s work reminded me of poor general contracting, but the more you look at it, the more it seems like an acid trip take on a cave.
  • The benefits of cursing – In the ‘brain science gone to far’ pile, some researchers are studying why we instinctively curse.  Isn’t the fact that it feels good and the words are fun to say explanation enough? Interesting, but silly methinks.
  • U2 re-releases Unforgetable fire – Listening to this album is always a treat, as the bands sound isn’t changed yet by mega-stardom. The link has an interview with the producers of the re-release.

I need your help: important

There is something important I don’t say very often. I need you.

Yes you. Not the guy in the cubicle behind you, but you.

What I rarely talk about is I’m on my own – I’m flying solo in most of my work – and the only thing that keeps all this going are the comments, links, tweets, recommendations all of you guys do on my behalf to spread the word about my work.

As I’m several light years away from being a household name, and no billionaire benefactor has come forth yet to bankroll what I do, whatever fame I have comes from people who like my work. And unless you wandered here looking for Shmott Shermkun or Fott Ferkun, that’s you.

Here’s how you can help me and my career:

  • Email / tweet / Facebook a blog post you liked to others
  • Leave a comments so I know I did well, or not
  • Buy one of my books if you’ve only read the blog (Myths / MTH / Confessions)
  • Write an amazon.com review of my books (Myths / MTH / Confessions)
  • Recommend a book, or this blog, to coworkers & friends (they can  subscribe via RSS)
  • If you know event organizers, suggest they bring me in as a speaker

I’m grateful to all of you who have done this stuff in the past. Every mention makes a difference.

Wanted to let you know I depend on you and appreciate the help, and if you’re not sure if it matters, I can tell you for sure that it does.

How to write a book, part 2

A popular posts on this blog is how to write a book: the short honest truth with over  900 comments. It’s the 2nd or 3rd link if you do a google search for how to write a book.

I answer many of the comments and recently rounded up more fun ones to respond to. Here we go.

POPOOLA ABAYOMI asked:

PLAESE HELP ME KNOW HOW TO WRITE

Um, no. Not until you at least spell the first word correctly and turn the caps off. (odds are 50/50 this post was written by my dog, Max, playing a practical joke on me).

Geraint wrote:

hey im 15 and im writing a book and i was wondering what you do when u get writers block because im getting it alot now im on my 1050th page of my book, its good so far i think and i was just wondering if you had any tips on how to get rid of writers block or on how to get inspiration? great article by the way lots of help :D

If that’s not a typo, and you have 1050 pages, your problem is not writers block my friend. You may even have writers anti-block. When you’re in the hundreds of pages it’s a good idea to stop for a few minutes and think about plot and structure. Or find an editor to read some of what you’re written.

Lynne wrote:

I am a surgical RN,,and I know nothing about writing a book,,but I want to write one related to things that are important and maybe useful to others (nothing to do with the medical field), my concerns is how to start the book, do i do a outline first or do I just jump in a start writing and organize later,,what program should I use on my pc???

There is no single way to do this and everyone works differently. Try writing an outline. If you don’t like that, try jumping in. Personally I like outlines. It helps me sort out my thinking and gives a rough structure to aim for, but I’m always willing to abandon the outline when it feels right. It’s also a good barometer for how clear my thinking is, since if I can’t list ten or twelve ideas, or points, or plot notes, it’s unlikely I’ll have enough for an entire chapter, much less a book. But many writers work the other way. The important thing is you try something, and if it doesn’t work, try something else. There are plenty of gimmicky books that offer other methods too.

Chris wrote:

That was great, I decided I will make a film instead.

Hmmm. I actually think making films is harder than writing books, but perhaps I should keep my mouth shut.

Art asked:

I have a wife and a son and while I think others would enjoy my stories would I even be able to get published on a low end well enough to pay the bills persay? I know it’s a question asked quite often and I’ll be doing a bit more searching and I may turn up some answers I just would like to hear it from someone who has been there.

Assume not. And for those story writers who do earn enough to pay the bills it takes years or decades to earn enough credibility and audience for that to happen. It’s certainly possible, but the odds are against it, especially if you’re talking about short stories. Write for other reasons, but do write. You’ll learn much about yourself just by trying.

Ashley inquired:

thanks for the article. I love to write stories, that is in my head i do. I can imagine so many different places, situations, and stories. However, when I sit down to write them out or pick up paper and pen to write it out, I can’t seem to word it right. At least, not all of what i wanted to write. I have great openers, the first chapter, so to speak comes so naturally. I can do an outline of what I want to say, how I want the story to go, but, when it comes to actually writing the whole thing out I get stuck.

and Janet asked:

The problem i’m having is this , it’s all in my head, getting it on paper is the hard part. I started writing one evening about four months ago, and got bugged down with it. Telling the story is very easy ,but putting it in the form of a book i’m having struggles.

Ha! Welcome to the torture of being a creative. There are thousands of musicians who can hear songs in their heads, but can’t make it sound right on the piano or guitar. Painters who imagine canvases in their dreams they can never replicate in the day. The discipline of creative work is learning how to close that gap, over time, through the mastery of craft (See How to find your voice). There is no shortcut. It doesn’t mean you’re doing something wrong, it feels that way for most creative people most of the time. The difference is those who fight through and keep working learn to close the gap. Or perhaps simply make excellent work others love, even if it never perfectly matches what the creator had in their mind (See Why you fail at writing and How to get good at anything).

Lis asked:

How do you get pass the fear? All I keep thinking is that I will be laughed at and think my book stupid.

Weren’t you afraid to leave this comment? You did write it after all, despite the fact I could call you stupid. A book is just a collection of 8,000 or so sentences. If you can write one you can write 8000. When anyone laughs at your book, just say “ok, where is yours?” Then when they start to make up some excuse for not having one, hit them in the face (with your book).

Kim, who perhaps did not read the post, asked:

I know I can write; I live and breath to write. What completely douses my enthusiasm are the odds of getting published. That thought takes the wind right out of me!

To hell with publishers then. Go to kinkos. Go to lulu. If you are obsessed with someone else publishing your book your problem isn’t writing, it’s your ego. Self publishing gives you control over the odds.

Tereai said:

If the truth be told writing is natural. It cannot be taught. Thats why there’s a word called TALENT. If its not in you no matter how you force yourself it wont be as good as the naturals.

Who cares? The coolness of writing is you can revise. If you are willing to put in effort writing gets better as you work with it. I’d agree with you perhaps for figure skating or opera, but the tools for writing are available to all. And besides, name a talented writer who didn’t work. Name a natural. I’d bet you they didn’t see their process, discipline or effort as natural. They’d describe it, much like I did in the original post, as work.

MJ quipped:

The first is write the beginning.
write the end and then fill in the blanks !

As silly as this sounds, the first question I ask people when they ask about writing books is this: Have you written a page? And when they say no, I suggest perhaps their problem isn’t with writing books, it’s with writing a page. If you can’t write a page, don’t worry about books, worry about paragraphs.

If you missed part 1, this will all make more sense if you go back and read it.

Biggest myths in world history? Help a school teacher

What do you think are the biggest myths in world history? I’m trying to put together a good list to help this public school teacher develop a class assignment and can use your help.

A recent email from a reader of the blog made this request:

I teach a 9th grade world history class and I’d like to have them attempt to prove/refute some myths of history. I discovered your site and thought I’d give this a try. I’m going to show them your piece about Gutenberg and the printing press as a template for exploring historical myths. Any help or suggestions you could provide about other topics would be appreciated. I’m looking for anything I can investigate from the 1500s to the late 18th century. Thanks

Here’s a few good ones to get things started:

What are some favorite world history myths you know and might be appropriate for a high school project? Bonus points if it’s 1500 to 1800, but any good ones are welcome.

Please leave a comment if you have ideas – thanks!

An open letter to micromanagers

Dear Micromanager:

Owners of thoroughbreds never stop their horses mid-race, every ten seconds, to remind the horse and jockey how to run, where the finish line is, or that it’d be good to finish first. Why? It would slow them down. Only an fool would do this.

If you’re a manager, you must assume you have thoroughbreds working for you. Your job is to give them what they need to win their respective races, agreeing with them on goals and rewards, but then getting the hell out of the way. Until they start jumping fences or attacking other horses, you must let them run their race.

Even if you are 30% better at a task than someone who works for you, the time it takes for you to check on them every few hours, and demand approvals over trivial decisions, costs more in lost morale, passion for work, and destruction of self-respect among your staff than the 30% you think you’re adding.  No one works well if they feel they are being treated like a confused child. Having two people involved in work that should only require one wastes everyone’s time.

Perhaps you don’t think you are managing thoroughbreds and that your horses need lots of help.

This is possible.

But if you are in fact a micromanager, you started over-managing the first day others worked for you. You have no idea what they are capable of. You’re probably treating at least one potential Seabiscuit as if he were a toy pony at the county fair.

A healthy, confident, well-adjusted manager knows their job is to do three things:

  1. Hire thoroughbreds, point them at the finish line,  and get out of their way unless they truly need help, or ask for it
  2. Coach, teach, encourage and position ordinary horses to maximize their potential and approximate thoroughbreds in some of their work.
  3. Fire those who can never do the work needed without your constant involvement to make room for those who can.

If you don’t do these things, the responsibility is yours alone. Good managers achieve all three. Mediocre managers at least are working towards good ends. But bad managers are too distracted by their own egos, paychecks or insecurities to recognize how self-destructive they are.

An easy test of micromanagement is to let your team know you are confident in their ability to do their job, set clear goals and then tell them you are available if ever they need help. Give them more room to perform. Tell them you are available if they need you, but otherwise you will put your attention elsewhere other than timely check ins. See what happens. Hold your tongue. Don’t demand to review that email. Don’t insist on regulating who can meet with who. Take one small step backward and see what happens.

Odds are good the world will not end. Your best employees will be happier and more productive, giving you new energy to invest in the rest of your work or more afternoons where you can head home early. Some of your team might surprise you, and thrive with more autonomy. And for those who fail to improve or make mistakes, you’ve lost nothing, as you can step back in where it’s actually needed and now know where to focus.

If you are terrified of trying this and have a list of excuses why this is a bad idea, the only thing you are managing is your ego. Perhaps you’re afraid to admit your people can function quite well without your approval or input on every little thing. Or it could be you are proof of the Peter Principle, and would be happier and more useful if you stopped managing and worked solo. A bigger paycheck is not a healthy trade for making yourself and your staff miserable.

Good managers are brave, and generous with trust in their people. They want them to mature in their judgment and grow in their skills, preferring to err on the side of trusting too much than trusting too little. They take pleasure in letting go and giving power away to their staff, accepting that when someone who works for them shines, they shine too.

But if you do not enjoy these things, and struggle to trust your staff, or can’t bear to see a decision made or reward earned without your name all over it, you should stop managing people.  You and everyone who works for you will be happier if you did.

Hugs and kisses,

Signed,

The people you are micromanaging

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

See this response, an open letter to the micromanaged

Know someone who needs to read this?

Related links:

Why do people make bad slides?

For years experts in psychology, design and even technology have decried Powerpoint and its many evils.  Every few months another blog post, or presenter, explains in detailed outrage why the a presentation they saw was a a horror show of bulleted lists, overwrought diagrams and ancient templates (including this recent story NSA/Prism story).

prism

So why then are bad slides so popular?

  • Bad slides are less work. Nearly everything in the world we know to be stupid is easier to do than the right thing. Ignorance is often less of an issue that the lack of interest in doing the extra work to be better. For unpleasant things, most people, most of the time, are happy to do just enough not to be horrible, and move on.
  • The slide is used for more than the presentation alone. Garr Reynold’s calls this a slideument, a reference to how the slide deck is expected to function without the speaker, sent around in emails. In large bureaucracies is common for the slide deck to be circulated before, and after, the presentation itself.
  • Organizational tradition demands bad slides. If most people at an event do the same old boring, hard to understand, ugly distracting template, bulleted list wall of death, to do the right thing requires standing out and taking a risk, something most speakers do not want to do. They want to fit in and take few risks. The rule makers are often those most out of touch with what good presentations, and their slides, should be like.
  • It makes it look like you’ve done tons of work. To the average eye, a dense, heavy, slide deck looks like more work has been done that the refined, clear, clean slides heralded by the best speakers. It’s a fast way to make it appear that you’ve done much work, when in reality a simple, clear, concise slide deck requires much more work. People are often impressed, at least at first, by volume, rather than quality.
  • They really don’t know there’s an alternative. Some people don’t get out much. They don’t see many presentations. Even if they’ve seen a TED talk online they don’t make the connection that what they do in their workplace can borrow some of those choices. So when it’s their turn they pull up an average of all the ones they’ve seen and try to use their presentation software, tools that promote bullet lists above all else, to approximate it.
  • They’re asked for bad slides. Some event organizers ask to review slides, as if that’s a good quality control measure.  When handed a slide deck of 15 pictures, they have no idea what the speaker is going to talk about, and this makes them nervous. It’s not uncommon for speakers with slides that follow Garr Reynold’s advice to get feedback that make their slides worse.
  • Speakers use slides as their own notes. Slides should be for the audience, not the speaker. But many speakers destroy their slides by cramming back-up information that would only be used by the speaker.  It’s ok to leave cues for yourself in slides, but they must be minimal enough they don’t ruin the audiences experience.

I’m convinced there will always be bad slides. There will always be ugly, bullet laden slide decks, or Powerpoint abused visuals, filled with text and diagrams few will read much less understand. Until conference organizers, professors, and bosses explicitly encourage a new, improved style of communication, we’ll be living with these complaints for a long time.

I deliberately didn’t spend much time in my book Confessions of a Public Speaker on slide design, since if you plan a talk properly you focus on slides last, and they come out simpler and better since they’re never the focus. And of course Presentation Zen and Slide:ology do a good job of explaining slide design craft.

Chris Atherton‘s excellent presentation at TCUK09 details the cognitive psychology of good slides – why aren’t these concepts and research more well known?

What do you think needs to happen to help presentations, and slides, evolve?

[Note: post updated 6/6/2013]

How to keep your mouth shut

I have a disorder of a kind known as “can not keep my mouth shut.” If I think someone isn’t being honest, or even if I just disagree with them strongly, my arm raises, and my mouth engages, well before my brain can calculate the possible damage.

I have been in successful recovery for years and I am here to share what I’ve learned.

As a rule, if you insist on always speaking your mind, you will inevitably find yourself in an environment where everyone hates you. Most people can not handle the truth (or what you believe is the truth). And the more you shove it in their face, the easier it is for them to ignore you. You simply become the person who always complains. Your ideas will be shot down simply because of the reputation of the mouth they come from.

The trick to keeping your mouth shut is this: put the desire to effect positive change above your instinct to tell people they’re wrong. The later almost never leads to the former.

Back in my early days at Microsoft I worked on strong teams where you were expected to have opinions. If you saw something stupid happening you were obligated to raise your hand, say “I think this is stupid and here’s why.” If you were right, you were applauded no matter how senior the people in the room were. I argued with group managers, VPs, and many other tough, smart people far more senior than I was. If I was wrong, I was dismissed, but not scolded. I might have heard praise for not being afraid. I thrived in this environment and assumed this was how the world worked.

But later,  in a new job at Microsoft in a group known as MSTE, I discovered a different world. No one spoke their mind in public. Few people worked hard or asked tough questions. Quality of work, and morale, was low.  I felt obligated to mention these facts as often and as loudly as possible to leadership. I even expected to be rewarded for telling people how bad things were. Why wouldn’t they want to hear this? I thought.

Before I knew it, I was that guy. The guy who always complains.

In my egocentric view, the work around me was well beneath the bar. But I didn’t stop to think the group had its own bar, it’s own culture and it was not my job to set it. And I was far from having enough respect from anyone to be seen as a leader, which would be required to change the culture anyway.

It took months of suffering to realize I was in a different culture with different expectations. It blew my mind to realize there were other cultures at all. To achieve the same positive effects my opinionated nature had early in my career, I’d have to adopt a very different approach.

I also realized in the past, in other groups, progress happened not simply because I was right and took a stand (as much as my ego wished it to be true). It happened because my boss, or his/her boss, listened to my points and took action, or granted me the power to do so. Having an idea changes nothing unless someone with sufficient power, and genuine interest, does something about it. The idea alone is never enough. Nor is saying it out loud.

In the movie Glengarry Glenn Ross, Blake (played by Alec Baldwin) gives perhaps the meanest lecture of all time to a bunch of salesmen. Why is this lecture possible? Why didn’t they ignore him or beat him up? Is it Alec’s strong chin and trim physique? No, it’s because the owners of the company asked him to do it. He’s allowed to open his mouth, and speak a certain kind of truth, however unnecessarily mean and adversarial it is, because he has the support of the people in power (You can watch this amazing scene here – NSFW). You could never successfully behave this way unless someone with more power then you allowed you to.

Glengarry-Glen-Ross-Grab_510x317

There’s another scene in Glengarry Glen Ross, where a salesman (played in the movie by Al Pacino) yells at the sale manager (played by Kevin Spacey), never to open your mouth until you know the shot. If you don’t know the angle being played, anything you say might ruin the plan (you can watch the scene here).

This is a great rule to follow before you raise objections or offer big ideas. No matter how right you are, if you care about effecting change, you should never open your mouth without some sense of who will agree with you and who won’t. If you can anticipate the angles and responses, and judge, even by guessing, if there is a 80%, 20% or 0% percent chance anyone in good standing will follow your lead in support of what you say, you know whether it’s worth opening your mouth. It’s a world of difference of perception when someone respected says, after you speak, “he might be right” and when there’s only silence. And of course, in most cases your percentages go up if you raise your objections in private, rather than in a large meeting where egos are at stake.

These days, as an independent, I’m invited to visit and speak to different groups every week, in different cities and countries around the world. I depend on my ability to evaluate the culture I’m in each and every time.

Of course there are times when the BS has piled up too high and you have to speak the truth no matter the consequences. Forcing an issue can be the only way to get it the attention it deserves. But pick your battles. If a year goes by and you haven’t taken a single stand, I’d likely call you a coward (Nothing in 12 months was worth making a stink over? You have to draw your sword now and then to remind people you have one). But if you’re taking a stand every day, you’re either a glutton for punishment, an egomaniac, or too stupid to realize you’re working for the wrong people.

How to say things well, including the tough stuff, is another matter entirely and one I’ll save for another post.

Meanwhile, to help with my own recovery: how do you decide when to open your mouth, and when to keep it shut? At work or at home?

What copyeditors do

Few people understand the process of completing a book. Everyone understands the ideas of drafts, but the process of copyediting, where someone gets ‘all up in your sentences’ is a sensitive thing. How does it work?

At most publishers, copyeditors are rarely involved until late in the process. The Editor for a book rarely does any line-editing. Editors, with a capital E, are typically in charge of signing authors (a.k.a. acquisitions) and also helping to direct and guide the book (a.k.a. development), but at the detail level of grammar and paragraphs often someone else is involved. Enter, the copyeditor.

Here’s a snapshot of a draft chapter from Confessions of a Public Speaker, with notes from a copyeditor.

copyediting

Copyeditors have a tough job. They have to sort out what the author was trying to do, and then help them do it. But if a writer botches a sentence or a paragraph (or chapter), it’s hard for copyeditors to figure out the intent. And of course writing is more than grammar and tense, it’s also less tangible factors like honesty, relevance, humor and value, which the copyeditor might sense are lacking but can’t fix on their own: that’s the writer’s job.

The result is good copyediting leads to good conversations between the copyeditor and writer about what the writer was trying to do and how they can do it better. Problem is, most authors are exhausted by this point and the last thing they want is another round over the coals of criticism.

One way copyedits are done is through Word and revision marks. The copyeditor gets the so called ‘final draft’, reviews it chapter by chapter making line edits the author can see, and leaves comments or questions for things that might need to be rewritten. It looks like this:

As the author, I have to go through change by change and decide for myself one of five things:

  1. Is the change good?
  2. If I don’t like the change, was there a problem in the original I should fix?
  3. Is the copyeditor right grammatically, but wrong stylistically?
  4. Is the copyeditor an idiot and didn’t get the joke? Or is this just not funny?
  5. Does this section need to be rewritten, entirely scrapped, or have new paragraphs added?

People talk about a book being a “great read” but rarely does anyone explore why, and a big part of it is how the author and copyeditor work together. Accepting every change can make books tighter, but also flat and bland. Some writers, exhausted or frustrated, accept all changes and I think it shows in the stiff, uptight style their books have. On the other hand, rejecting all changes from copyeditors is likely suicidal as you’ll sound too raw, and too stupid, as bad grammar and paragraph structure generally makes you read like an idiot.

To be in the sane middle ground, even though I’m technically “on the last draft”, during copyediting I have to carefully go through every chapter for the zillionth time, re-reading, re-writing and trying again to keep the experience for the reader as tight and interesting as possible.

I don’t want to rewrite the book. Hell, I want to do as little work as possible if I feel the book is pretty good as is. But some parts clearly need help. The trick is to do just enough to make it good, without breaking something else in the process. Surgical rewriting is the goal. But when you change one paragraph, that change can cascade into others, and before you know it you’ve made things much worse. Best advice is to cut more out than you add during the copyedit.

The copyeditor for my first three books was Marlowe Shaeffer. She’s tough, smart, sarcastic and direct, which is great. I want to hear some tough stuff in the copyedit. How else will the book get better? A copyeditor and author shouldn’t agree on everything – the process should force the writer to think more clearly and catch bad assumptions they’ve made. I get final say, so what do I have to lose in being questioned? Better now than in book reviews.

It takes a few weeks to complete a copyedit, and have the debates, in my mind or with Marlowe, to resolve all the changes. The copyedit is also a chance for me to add & check references, and to go through my research notes one more time for little bits that might fit nicely into places that need some spice. Some jokes and twists often don’t make it in until the copyedit.

Good copyeditors are underpaid. They have the most intimate involvement in the creative process, even though it’s late in the game. In many cases they make mediocre writers look good. And of course a bad copyeditor can make an interesting or entertaining writer seem boring and dull.

But in either case, writers, after the copyedit, are still not finished.

The last stretch is what are called galleys or quality reviews. A copy of the book is produced in actual layout and style of the printed book, and I get to help review it for problems. Typos, image problems, layout issues and orphans (words left alone on a page), can arise in the transfer from Word to the Galley layout. Of course the publisher reviews for these things, but my name goes on the cover and I get blamed for everything. There’s a natural desire to check it out and catch what I can.

In the end I figure I read my own book dozens of times before it ever gets into stores. As does the copyeditor and sometimes the production editor (who manages the production of the printed book). There’s no way around it – writing is a reading intensive process, always has been and always will be.

Have questions about copy-editing, or the writing process? Ask away.

Magic numbers of project management

No matter where I go, or what industry I’m talking to, if I ask enough questions of people who have schedules for important things eventually I hear a magic number.A magic number is a mystical multiplier used to figure out schedules.

Sometimes it’s small, other times it’s large. But regardless of the size, very smart people managing very important things bet their projects on these numbers without having any logical reason for doing so. Typically the origins are mystical: we use this number because we’ve always used this number. That’s not a good basis for doing much of anything.

Here’s the list of the common ones, plus some better ways to compute proper estimates.

Common magic numbers in the wild:

  • You know you have a magic number if you apply math to an estimate without any understanding of why it works instead of a larger or smaller number.
  • Double all estimates (2X). This is the most common one I see. It’s often used as a joke in some places, and taken deadly seriously in others. Often it’s historic: someone did it eons ago so now everyone does it.
  • Pad estimates by 20% (or insert magic number here). Asking “why this number?” typically is answered with “this is the way we’ve always done it”. Should get these people to talk with the 2x guys over some beers. It’d be fascinating.
  • Secret padding. This is where the team manager takes estimates from subteams, applies a secret number, possibly a different secret number per engineer or team, to arrive at the actual schedule.
  • Know other secret numbers? Please leave a comment. I love these.

What to do instead

The simplest, sanest step in the world, a step few people do, is when a project ends go back and compare your estimates with what actually happened. Put it up on a big whiteboard, sit down with a handful of your team leaders, and maybe a friendly client, and discuss two things:

  1. What factors explain the difference between the estimate and reality?
  2. What smarter things could you have done to have a better schedule?

Unless you ask questions like these your estimates are still going to be guesses. It’s only when you study all the slips and adjustments you’ve forgotten about over the course of the project that you can see how magical, or bogus, your estimate was. Then you learn from your estimates, instead of ignoring them.

The best way to think about estimates is that it’s a culture, not a formula. It’s no accident better teams are better at staying on schedule. They ask better questions of each other and care about things most people on projects ignore. What are those things?

You discover them for your kind of projects by going back and studying. Focus attention on the assumptions made in the original schedule, note the (kinds of) things you missed and apply that knowledge, as a team, the next time around. Don’t fight the last war – the next project won’t be same as the last – but make sure to learn from it.

Magic numbers never rarely work because every project is different. A riskier project might deserve a multiplier of 5x. A simple project might need no multiplier at all. The blind application of a near random number only serves to confuse everyone involved about why schedules work and why. Also see:

  • Wideband Delphi. Every team should do this exercise every six months. It shows everyone it’s ok to discuss and share estimates instead of doing them privately and that estimates get better when they are a team effort. The social effects is the most powerful thing – the goal isn’t perfect estimates, it’s a team comfortable collaborating to make everyone better at estimating, as well as asking better questions about requirements, assignments and just about everything. Few are taught in school how to use their peers to generate better estimates and this instructs them.
  • Cone of uncertainty: A basic PM concept many executives/managers running projects have never heard of. If you buy it, it’s clear the unavoidable high variance of early estimates runs against the business cycle of many organizations, forcing big bets way too early, setting up bad schedules (and schedule guilt) from the beginning.
  • Exploring requirements, by Weinberg and Grause. The real problem of estimates is often the failure to generate good, design worthy, client comprehended project requirements. Who cares if you have a solid estimate for something no one actually wanted? The best, most realistic, least jargon-y and most in-the-trenches, book I’ve seen on this mystical process is Weinberg’s.

Have you used or have seen another magic number? Please leave a comment

UI14: Ten reasons you should go (Nov ’09, Boston)

One of my favorite UI/UX conferences is the User Interface Conference, now in it’s 14th year. It’s held in Boston, and runs Nov 1-3rd this year.

I strongly recommend this thing all the time, and here’s my top ten reasons you should go:

  1. It’s in Boston, which kicks ass
  2. It has first rate sessions on IA, Visual Design, Prototyping and more
  3. The size is small – you meet and chat with lots of people. Networking++
  4. You get $50 off per day if you use the code: BERKUN, plus I’ll buy you a beer*
  5. There’s a sweet mix of workshops and featured talks
  6. These folks have a sense of humor which makes learning and socializing easy
  7. If you sign up with 2 or more people, it’s $150 off (UI14 loves your coworkers)
  8. It’s the first place I’ll speak about my new book, Confessions of a Public Speaker
  9. If you get a PDF version of the materials, it’s $75 off (UI14 cares about the planet and your wallet)
  10. Todd Zaki Warfel, Dan Rubin, Jared Spool, and on it goes
  11. (bonus) I’m teaching about creativity and innovation, in a top rated workshop
  12. (bonus bonus) Speaker feedback effects speaker bonuses (I love this)

* I get a chunk of that discount. Which will pay for several of your beers.

You can read all the details here or jump straight to registration.

Wednesday linkfest

Here are this week’s links:

The new serendipity?

One old argument in the history of tech progress is the tragic loss of a side effect of an old technology, and that it will be lost forever with the new technology. But we can be sentimental about anything, even stupid things, things no one liked even when the technology was popular. Thanks to Nick Hornby, people of middle age bemoan the end of mix-tapes on cassettes, something I admit I miss. But does anyone remember rewinding those things? Or when the tape got caught in the tape deck, and you had to pray with a pencil in hand that you could rewind it back inside without breaking it?

The flavor of the internet age version of this retroactive argument involves the limits of the web. People who go to malls  or bookstores and say there’s something magical about how you see unexpected things when you browse in physical stores and that being online takes this wonderful serendipity away. Oh, The Horror.

This NYT article, called the digital age is stamping out serendipity, takes the predictable angle that we lose when the old serendipity and sense of chance is taken away from us.

It misses how every new medium can provide a new kind of serendipity. The web itself is hypertext, perhaps the greatest form of chance and change we’ve had in ages. With a single click we move, somewhat blindly, from one website and point of view to another, and to a new page with dozens of unexpected opinions, images or ideas. There is a kind of gamble in every click. Surprise awaits us on the other side, which explains how easily you can forget what it was you were trying to do in the first place. There’s a good argument for the web being too serendipitous.

In the end, serendipity is everywhere if your curious enough to look for it. Every footnote in a book, every insect on a tree, every word in every Facebook update or blog post, has a history and a story we can investigate if we decide we’re interested in jumping into a new story.